02: A Non-zero system
Biggest learning this week was to develop a non-zero system. 1 > 0. Remember that.
Comment from reddit
Here’s a summary of the 4 rules in my own words:
Rule 1: be consistent, one is better than zero. Do at least something that can help you toward your goal or dream each day. Want to lose weight? Exercise. You don’t have to run a marathon. Do a pushup. Take a walk.
Want to learn to program? Write a line of code. Build a silly website.
You now live in a non-zero system.
Rule 2: become your own best friend. There are 3 of you - past you, present you, and future you. Ever decision you make should be to benefit your future self.
Life is a all about bets, your decisions are bets against your future self. Thank past you for helping future you, and you’ll develop gratitude.
Rule 3: Forgive yourself. Self-pity accomplishes nothing.
If you’re disappointed in yourself, you will be less productive. And that’s bad for the non-zero system.
Rule 4: Exercise and books. When you exercise daily, you get smarter. It’s more for your mind than for your body.
All-time quote about reading: reading is the fucking warp whistle from Super Mario 3. It’s true.
Superforecasting by Tetlock and Gardner
Rented the book from library, listened to a podcast about it, and read these book notes. It’s a little dense, too many examples, but some big ideas that are important:
- triage: don’t waste time trying to predict the unpredictable, focus on the right things
- it’s all about balance - overconfidence and underconfidence, perspectives, evidence
- if facts change, you need to change
- understand basic probability or odds
60/40 is a 40% chance, 4 / 6+4=10, 25/1 is 3.85% chance, 1 / 25+1=26
Fermi-ize example: how many piano tuners are in Chicago?
Break it down into smaller questions, what must be true for me to answer this question?
- number of pianos in Chicago
- how often are pianos tuned each year
- how long does it take to tune a piano
- how mamny hours a year the average piano tuner works
Breaking down the question determines what is knowable and unknowable.
A few things I’m chewing on:
- avoid extreme ideologies, it gets you stuck on ideas
- try to expose yourself to alternate viewpoints
- if you’re confident about something, you should be able to counter it or argue against it, if you can’t - you don’t fully understand what you’re confident about
- determination is important, keep it at it, take a break, but keep trying
- rub your nose in your mistakes, own it
- mistakes of omission happen, you never get over it, but you do less of it
This list of quotes is incredible.
Quote I’m thinking about
- Practically everybody (1) overweighs the stuff that can be numbered, because it yields to the statistical techniques they’re taught in academia, and (2) doesn’t mix in the hard-to-measure stuff that may be more important. That is a mistake I’ve tried all my life to avoid, and I have no regrets for having done that. - Munger on statistics
Metaphor that made sense
- I believe managing is like holding a dove in your hand. If you hold it too tightly you kill it, but if you hold it too loosely, you lose it. - Tommy Lasorda
- updated Dadgum Box Scores with more info
- researched more on R, learning how to make some graphs
R Programming Language
library(ggplot2) library(hrbrthemes) ow.data <- read.csv(file="try.csv") View(ow.data) ggplot(try.data, aes(x = game, y= Three, colour = variable)) + geom_line(aes(y = pct, colour = "pct"), size=1.5) + geom_line(aes(y = att, colour = "att"), linetype="dotted", size=1.5) + labs(x="Game Number", y="3PT Pct and Attempt Rate", title="3PT Percentage and Attempt Rate by Carolina Opponents", subtitle="Percentage of 3PT shots made and attempted by 2017-18 opponents game-by-game", caption="Brought to you by dadgumboxscores.com") + scale_x_continuous(name="Game.Number", breaks=c(1:37), labels=c(1:37),limits=c(1,37)) + scale_colour_manual("", breaks = c("pct", "att"), values = c("pct"="#66CC99", "att"="#CC6666")) + geom_vline(xintercept=c(23,24), linetype="dashed") + theme_ipsum(grid="XY")
- Need to keep going, try the sports course and make more graphs
- It’s all about balance - moderation
- Be a generalist.
- Keep trying, keep trying, have some grit.
- Try to do one-thing a day to help future you - exercise, read/learn, eat healthy.