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02: A Non-zero system

Biggest learning this week was to develop a non-zero system. 1 > 0. Remember that.

Consuming

Comment from reddit

This is maybe best reddit comment I’ve ever read. It comes from ryans01.

Here’s a summary of the 4 rules in my own words:

Rule 1: be consistent, one is better than zero. Do at least something that can help you toward your goal or dream each day. Want to lose weight? Exercise. You don’t have to run a marathon. Do a pushup. Take a walk.

Want to learn to program? Write a line of code. Build a silly website.

You now live in a non-zero system.

Rule 2: become your own best friend. There are 3 of you - past you, present you, and future you. Ever decision you make should be to benefit your future self.

Life is a all about bets, your decisions are bets against your future self. Thank past you for helping future you, and you’ll develop gratitude.

Rule 3: Forgive yourself. Self-pity accomplishes nothing.

If you’re disappointed in yourself, you will be less productive. And that’s bad for the non-zero system.

Rule 4: Exercise and books. When you exercise daily, you get smarter. It’s more for your mind than for your body.

All-time quote about reading: reading is the fucking warp whistle from Super Mario 3. It’s true.

Superforecasting by Tetlock and Gardner

Rented the book from library, listened to a podcast about it, and read these book notes. It’s a little dense, too many examples, but some big ideas that are important:

60/40 is a 40% chance, 4 / 6+4=10, 25/1 is 3.85% chance, 1 / 25+1=26

Fermi-ize example: how many piano tuners are in Chicago?

Break it down into smaller questions, what must be true for me to answer this question?

Breaking down the question determines what is knowable and unknowable.

Charlie Munger

Still reading about Munger. I’ve read lots of notes, bits and pieces of this misjudgement speech, and some of Tren Griffin’s exhaustive list of posts.

A few things I’m chewing on:

This list of quotes is incredible.

Quote I’m thinking about

Metaphor that made sense

Creating

R Programming Language

library(ggplot2)
library(hrbrthemes)

ow.data <- read.csv(file="try.csv")
View(ow.data)

ggplot(try.data, aes(x = game, y= Three, colour = variable)) + 
  geom_line(aes(y = pct, colour = "pct"), size=1.5) +
  geom_line(aes(y = att, colour = "att"), linetype="dotted", size=1.5) +
  labs(x="Game Number", y="3PT Pct and Attempt Rate",  
    title="3PT Percentage and Attempt Rate by Carolina Opponents", 
    subtitle="Percentage of 3PT shots made and attempted by 2017-18 opponents game-by-game",
       caption="Brought to you by dadgumboxscores.com")  +
    scale_x_continuous(name="Game.Number", breaks=c(1:37), labels=c(1:37),limits=c(1,37)) +
    scale_colour_manual("", 
                      breaks = c("pct", "att"),
                      values = c("pct"="#66CC99", "att"="#CC6666")) +
       geom_vline(xintercept=c(23,24), linetype="dashed") + 
    theme_ipsum(grid="XY") 

Takeaways

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